Blog Post

Boulder County Appreciation

  • By Bill Allen
  • 09 Jun, 2016

Mike Malec is a great realtor in our office who wrote this article for our Re/Max of Boulder Website so I thought I would share it here as well. 

We all know the market is hot right now, but what do we do with that knowledge? How do we advise our buyers and sellers? These questions were raised at a recent office meeting and I found some interesting trends in the data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Home Purchase Index (HPI) that illuminate our recent market appreciation and it’s relation to past periods of market appreciation.

The HPI data is for all of Boulder County and is comprised of paired sales drawn from all of the appraisals done on conforming, conventional mortgages on single family homes. This means we’re looking at the sale of the same home over time, so we truly are comparing apples to apples.   This data does not include any attached home sales or data from VA, FHA or Jumbo mortgages.

Here’s the chart with a logarithmic scale that displays the same percentage changes in values with the same vertical scale regardless of value, so that a period of 50% appreciation in home values will have the same vertical height on the chart without regard to the starting and ending values.  I used the average sales price for a single family home in Boulder County at the end of 2015, and used the FHFA data to take that average home back in time to its value in 1978.

Many things struck me about this chart. The consistency of our periods of major appreciation in both slope and length of time. The fact that the intervening periods really didn’t see major depreciation.  The fact that we really didn’t see any sustained major depreciation for any period going back to 1978 in Boulder County. The fact that most of our periods of stronger appreciation last about 48 months.

One of the things I keep hearing lately is how unprecedented our current market strength is. While the buyer frenzy for the few properties on the market may be unprecedented, the appreciation rates we’re currently seeing match nicely with the periods of appreciation we saw from 1978-1982, 1990-1994, and 1997-2001. I was very surprised how well the green lines in the chart above matched the length and slope of the three preceding periods of strong appreciation. All of these 48 month periods saw appreciation that rose between 51.8% – 54.1%. This is interesting as our current period of appreciation started in 2013 and so far, values have gone up 32.9%. This tells me we can still expect about 19-20% more appreciation in home values before the cycle ends. This also tells me we’re likely to see strong appreciation into early 2017 assuming the same 48 month pattern holds true for this uptick in the market.

 The lack of any real downturns in the chart was also interesting. There were two times when you could have lost money if you bought at the very peak of the market and then had to sell within the next 3 years, Q2 1982 when we saw a 9.7% downturn and Q1 2009 when we saw a 3.4% downturn.  One time, Q2 1987, if you bought and had to sell within the next year you would have lost 1.43%. Other than those times, it’s been hard to point to any time in the chart where values have dropped dramatically. In fact, if you bought a property and held it for 6 years or more, there has never been a time in this dataset that you would have lost money.

 So what will it mean when this current cycle ends? I don’t think that means we’ll see depreciation, just a lessening in the rate of appreciation that will lead to a flatter period of still positive but small appreciation rates. I’ve heard many times before that the longer the flat period, the greater the rise at the start of the next cycle. Since our upturns have been very consistent without regard to the previous flat period, I’m not sure I believe in that assessment.  I think the consistency in the upturns has more to do with equity appreciation and wage gains. The purchasing power of the buyers builds up until there is a breakout but can only be sustained for so long before that buying power has to be recharged.

The one thing that could throw this whole analysis out the window is the potentially changing nature of our market.  Has our market fundamentally changed? If it has, an analysis comparing the current market to past patterns is doomed.  Buyers have definitely become more informed through the use of the internet, but I don’t think that has fundamentally changed the way the market appreciates. The one change that I see that probably has started to fundamentally change our market and will continue to change it is the build-out of Boulder County. All of the past appreciation periods occurred in times when more homes could be built, a new home relief valve on accumulating demand. We’re not built-out yet, but that day is on the horizon and assuming Boulder County remains the desirable place to be that it is now, this change will be dramatic and will finalize the supply side of the equation forever.


By Bill Allen 14 Feb, 2017

In the Washington Post last week, writer Emily Badger wrote about an interesting situation occuring in Los Angeles. Second units on single family lots are becoming increasingly popular in cities that have limited housing options with dramatically rising prices.

Those that were given permission to build won’t be given certificate of occupancy, therefore they can’t be added to public services, like the power grid. This has left some with living off of extention cords to the main house. All this after a lawsuit was brought against the city

Proponants say it can ease housing shortages and yeild more affordable houseing that won’t cost the city anything. It have help aging baby boomers and still-at-home millennials too.

Protesters say that these 2nd homes (LA’s rules stating can be no larger than 1200 sqft) change the feel of single family home neighborhoods. There will be too many people and less parking. They also fear more people in smaller homes would create a kind of affordable housing among expensive LA real estate.

The city of Los Angeles says that the issues should be resolved by the years end but many people still hang in limbo until that happens.

By Bill Allen 14 Feb, 2017

Here’s a great article written by Re/Max of Boulder’s own Haley Robinson. Enjoy!


Staging will highlight the strengths and downplay the weaknesses of you home and, if done right, will appeal to the greatest number of buyers.

Here are just a few hints on how to stage your home for sale.

Declutter and Clean

This is the absolute most important thing you can do to stage your home. Depending on how you live, I tell my clients to remove 50% of whatever is in view when you walk into a room. That’s books on the book shelves, art, things on counters, bedside tables, office desks, etc. Take those things and pack them in boxes or find it a new home in a cabinet or drawer.

Cleaning seems like an obvious one but I always reiterate it with my clients. When someone comes for a showing, there shouldn’t be baskets of laundry, food sitting out, unmade beds or really any proof that you were just there in the home. Also, organizing all cabinets, closets, and drawers, as people usually want to look inside. It should be in show ready condition for every showing, which can be difficult and stressful especially if you have kids and/or pets.

It also includes a deep clean. Dusting is very important as well as washed cabinets in the kitchen and all bathrooms, washed walls, clean toilets and showers, washed baseboards, and so on.

Depersonalize

When there is a showing in your house, the clients walk in and immediately they ask themselves, “Can I see myself living in this home?” And it’s 10 times harder for them to answer “yes” if they are staring at your family portrait over the fireplace or the kid’s drawings on the fridge. Depersonalizing your home will make room for the idea of someone else living there.

It’s not only framed family pictures but also fridge magnets, wall hangings, large art pieces, magazines, calendars, mail piles, and so on. This can also include political and/or religious objects. While it’s not my job to snuff out a clients personal beliefs, I encourage neutrality as much as the client is willing do.

This can sometimes be emotional for the homeowner. I try to prepare my clients that they may find themselves upset or sad during this step. It’s really the first step in saying good bye to your current home and, for some, it can be difficult.

Neutrality

This kind of falls into the depersonalization as well. That lovely floral wall paper, that bold rug, that bright bed comforter may be what you love most but to a potential buyer, it’s all they can see. They don’t see the great light coming in through the extra large double paned windows, all they see is the shade of green that the room is painted and how much they hate the color green. They don’t notice the open floor plan, all they see is the stuffed moose head. These are extreme examples but you get my point.

Getting your home neutral is important for visual people so they can actually see the home and it’s great potential. This may require repainting a room, changing the décor or even adding items like a lamp for extra light or a neutral rug to help brighten a dark wood floor.

Safety

This is my least favorite but most important topic to cover. We like to think of most people as good and honest but there are some jerks out there. Desperate and/or bad people come to open houses and showings, so with that in mind, certain steps need to be taken.

All expensive items, like jewelry, cash, etc, need to be put in a safe, inaccessible place. This also goes for any prescription drugs. I have personally caught someone elbow deep in a drawer containing prescription meds. The owners didn’t lock them up and it gave this person the opportunity to try and steal from them. Most important, all firearms need to be locked, put away with the ammo elsewhere, and preferably taken out of the home to another location. This can also include other weapons/art like bows, spears and the like.

Lastly, for fun, here are some actual, honest-to-goodness photos of homes for sale pulled from the MLS from around the country. Names and cities have been changed to protect the innocent…

By Bill Allen 14 Feb, 2017

A GREAT article by fellow Realtor Jay Kalinski! If you you are thinking of buying or selling the near future, read this article!

As predicted, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December, and conventional mortgage rates have increased from 3.625 percent on Nov. 4 to 4.375 percent as of the writing of this article (an increase of 0.75 percentage points). In 2017, economists predict a couple more interest-rate increases to the Fed funds rate, which will likely spur increases in conventional mortgage rates as well.

To a homebuyer in the Boulder Valley, what do these projected mortgage-rate increases actually mean? The effect may be bigger than you would think.

The 1 Percent = 10 Percent Rule

As a rule of thumb, for each 1 percent increase in mortgage rates, your buying power decreases about 10 percent. To understand the import of this, it is helpful to use a couple of examples that buyers in the Boulder Valley might face:

Scenario 1: Looking in Longmont

A couple would like to buy an average single-family home in Longmont, which costs about $400,000. They have about $80,000 (or 20 percent) saved as a down payment and meet with a lender, where they learn that they qualify for a maximum principal and interest payment of $1,600 per month.

If the current interest rate is 4 percent, then their monthly principal and interest payment would be about $1,528, and they would qualify to buy the house. (They could qualify up to $420,000 in the case of a bidding war.)

If, however, the interest rate increased to 5 percent, then the monthly principal and interest would increase to $1,718, and they would not qualify to buy the home. In fact, at this new interest rate, they would qualify to purchase only a $377,000 home (principal and interest of $1,595).

For this couple, a 1 percent increase resulted in a decreased purchase power of about 10.2 percent.

Scenario 2: Looking in Boulder

A couple would like to buy an average single-family home in Boulder, which costs about $1 million. They have about $200,000 (or 20 percent) saved as a down payment and meet with a lender, where they learn that they will need a jumbo loan, and that they qualify for a maximum principal and interest payment of $4,000 per month. (A jumbo loan is one that exceeds the conforming loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which, in Boulder County is $479,950.)

If the current interest rate is 4 percent, then their monthly principal and interest payment would be about $3,820, and they would be able to buy the house. (They could qualify up to $1,050,000 in the case of a bidding war.)

If, however, the interest rate increased to 5 percent, then the monthly principal and interest would increase to $4,295, and they would not qualify to buy the average home. In fact, at this new interest rate, they would qualify to purchase only a $945,000 home (principal and interest of $4,000).

For this couple, a 1 percent increase resulted in a decreased purchase power of 10 percent.

Price appreciation

The above scenarios consider only increasing interest rates. When you factor in price appreciation, which was roughly 15 percent last year for single-family homes in Boulder County, it increases the magnitude of lost purchasing power for buyers.

The Bottom Line

Many buyers in the Boulder Valley have felt a sense of urgency in the past several years, given the quickly appreciating housing market.  The prediction of increasing interest rates and, therefore, decreasing purchasing power, will likely add further pressure to buyers to purchase a home quickly before they are priced out of the homes they desire.

Jay Kalinski is broker/owner of Re/Max of Boulder.

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